squirrelhaven: extreme close-up of a red flower (Default)
[personal profile] squirrelhaven
If it's not one preoccupation, it's the other:

I've been checking the electoral projections at fivethirtyeight.com at least once a day for the last many weeks (that is, the days that I've made it to my computer at all), to try to keep myself reassured that Obama's got a very good chance of becoming the next president. The daily poll tracking has almost all been encouraging; even when it shows a slight improvement for McCain, it's along the lines of "Well, yesterday McCain was down by 12 points, today he's only down by 10 points," and even those small gains tend to disappear within a day or two. But the thing I find myself staring at every day is the pie chart in the upper left corner of the page, showing the odds on Obama's win. I have never seen the site place those odds below 90%, and usually they're above 95%.

Upon checking the site this morning, I remembered a nightmare from last night, in which Obama's win percentage had dropped to around 70%. My heart was in my throat for a moment, until I'd digested today's actual figure: 96.2%.

I'll be so glad when this election is over. (Unless we lose. In which case I'll be devastated. But let's not think about that.)

Date: 2008-10-29 04:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kcobweb.livejournal.com
Fivethirtyeight is such good stuff. I constantly find myself just getting lost (in the good way) in all the data.

Date: 2008-10-29 04:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] woobat.livejournal.com
I'll be so glad when this election is over. (Unless we lose. In which case I'll be devastated. But let's not think about that.)

Boy, howdy.

Date: 2008-10-29 05:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] heinleinfan.livejournal.com
I have had many a porch conversation with canvasers here in Colorado.

And I must say, living in a...if not battleground, then at least contested state, adds quite a bit more energy to the voting process. It is, without a doubt, not something I need to do because it's my civic duty, but something I NEED to do because every single democratic party vote is needed.

I lived in Mississippi, then Tennessee then Boston. And I'm not saying that in those states my vote didn't count, because believing that nonsense is the road to ruin. But...well, in the South my Democratic Party vote was just one more teeny tiny drop in a teeny tiny bucket that got over-ruled by the giant flood of Republican votes. I still needed to make my drop, though, and I did whenever I could. And in Boston, well, it was kind of a given that the state would go Democrat, so it was just kind of icing on the cake, another number showing just how much support the Democrats had from me.

But here...it's on the fence, man. Colorado has a chance to go Democrat this year, in this oh-so-amazingly historic vote...and David and I are two more votes towards that chance. It's very exciting.

Date: 2008-10-29 05:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] norwich36.livejournal.com
I've been doing the same thing. And WOW do I want this election to be over, but like you said, not if McCain wins.

Though being a Californian, I think even if Obama wins I may still be really depressed a week from today because the "Yes on 8" camp is currently leading in the polls. :-(

Date: 2008-10-30 05:01 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] melissam805.livejournal.com
To quote woobat, boy, howdy.

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